Market Morsel
Monthly data on female cattle slaughter ratio (FSR) in the USA is now available to the end of February 2025 and it shows that the US herd is moving closer toward a rebuild phase beginning, but they are not there just yet. The level of female cattle slaughter has started 2025 below where it began 2024 and is also under the seasonal average trend, based upon the last decade of data but it is still shy of indicating that the herd is in rebuild.
The January 2025 FSR in the US was 49% and February lifted marginally to 49.6%, placing the annual average for 2025 at 49.3% thus far. Analysis of the annual average FSR versus annual cattle herd change shows that 48% is the historic threshold between rebuild and liquidation. In January 2025 the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated the US herd at 86.7 million head, a 0.6% drop from January 2024 herd estimates and signifying a sixth year of liquidation. However, the pace of liquidation has been easing over the last few years. The directional trend in the FSR moving toward the 48% threshold and the pace of the liquidation slowing suggests we are not too far away from entering a rebuild phase now.